If you want to make better marketing decisions, you may find today’s post really useful. It’s all about something I call bad numbers.
Allow me to explain!
Bad numbers = Bad data
Imagine you wanted to know what the average small business owner thought about social media. If you asked that question via a poll on something like Facebook or Twitter, the results would be inaccurate and potentially damaging.
Why?
Because you would not be asking the average small business owner! You would be asking the average small business owner, who already uses social media. That group would give a very different response, than you would get from a true, random sample of small business owners. Any decisions you made based on that data would be based on bad numbers.
Everyone says…
I spoke with a fellow blogger recently, who changed the size of the font he used on his blog, because; “everyone said the font size was too big.” When I checked it out, everyone was actually just 3 people who commented on his blog. The first person said that he found the font size was a little large, then 2 of their friends said that they thought it was on the large side too. This guy gets around 300 unique visitors a day, so he based his decision on a flawed group of just 1% of his readership! After making the change, he immediately saw the average time people spent on his site drop by 15%. He has now reverted back to the original size font and has regained that 15% again.
Before you make a business decision based on numbers, it’s extremely important that the data you are working with is good. This means you need to be able to rely on the quality of the data and the size of the data sample, needs to be statistically relevant too.
For example, I spoke with the owner of a new, London based accountancy practice a few years ago. He told me that his last mail shot provided a zero response rate. As a result, he said he was no longer going to use mail shots as part of his marketing mix. I looked at the letter he used, and it was actually pretty good (for a change.) I then asked where he got the database that he used for the mailing, and it was one of the world’s leading suppliers of databases.
I then asked how many letters he sent. Here was his reply: “We sent 12 letters out, because we got 12 contact names and addresses for free, to evaluate the database they wanted to sell us.” He was basing his decision that mail shots did not work, on a mailing to just 12 people!
Before you make any decisions with your marketing, make sure you are basing those decisions on good numbers.
Photo: James Cridland
Wow…. that last part about sending out to 12 people is a little bit scary, Jim. So, 12 free names and you build an email marketing campaign around the result? Eesh!
Danny Brown´s last blog ..How Social Media Shaped 2009 – A Doodler’s Perspective
Crazy eh, Danny?
I see people almost daily, who think that a few unrelated, poorly written emails, sent to an email list that they buy, but never see/own – is a campaign.
Great stuff, as usual, Jim!
We human beings are simply not the rational beasts we believe we are, and often jump to erroneous conclusions.
I think you and your readers might find this slidedeck about cognitive bias interesting and informative:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/30548590/Cognitive-Biases-A-Visual-Study-Guide
Hi Jon. I just tried that link and there’s some google ads, with a picture.
Great article! It reminded me of the world done on decision-making by Tversky and Kahnemann. I think these principles also make for bad marketing decisions.
The availability heuristic, for example, is based on the idea that when asked to judge frequency or probability of an event, we base our judgement on how easy it is to think of relevant examples.
So now everyone wants to stop ALL offshore drilling because of the BP disaster. Or we change a font because the last three people who read our website told us to.
Interesting (but dense) reading:
http:/ezinearticles.com/?Cognitive-Heuristics—Review-of-Tversky-and-Kahnemans-Availability-Heuristic&id=2290209
I’m sure those with an interest will check it out. Thanks for sharing, Sara.
Hi Jim
Quoting you:
“I spoke with a fellow blogger recently, who changed the size of the font he used on his blog, because; “everyone said the font size was too big.” When I checked it out, everyone was actually just 3 people who commented on his blog. ”
I had EXACTLY this on my own blog that I’ve revamped recently: Had 6 commentators who said the type was too big, so I reduced it, and immediately received emails from over 20 more shouting the reverse – they loved the big easy-to-read type.
Dang! I changed it back again.
Jonathan Gunson
Jonathan Gunson´s last blog ..How To Google Optimize Your Website With Sensational Free Photographs … From Zero-Cost Photo Libraries